AGP Executive Report

Ukraine Recovery Conference: Albania’s PM Edi Rama is in Gdańsk for the two-day Ukraine Recovery Conference, focused on energy, critical infrastructure, logistics and security, while Zelensky is absent after a diplomatic dispute with Poland. Putin on civilian strikes: Putin told Russia’s government to “minimize” the fallout from Ukrainian attacks on civilian infrastructure, arguing Kyiv is trying to disrupt energy and the tourist season to gain leverage in talks. Crimea pressure: Satellite images show smoke from the Crimea Bridge as Ukraine targets logistics and fuel-linked infrastructure, while Kyiv also reports strikes on Russian gas and satellite communications facilities. Moldova cultural controls: Moldova published a list of Russian and CIS artists whose participation is “not recommended,” warning organizers they may be denied entry authorization over security concerns. Poland-Ukraine tension warning: Ukraine’s disinformation watchdog says Russia’s GRU may stage provocations using Polish symbols during the Ukraine Recovery Conference to inflame tensions. Cyber and surveillance: Citizen Lab and legal records say Russia used Cellebrite phone-cracking tools against opposition figure Andrey Pivovarov after Israel stopped selling the tech to Russia; separately, SBU and FBI describe systematic hacking of officials’ messengers. Regional business ties: Azerbaijan and Russia’s Astrakhan region discussed expanding cooperation, while Russia pushes Southeast Asia strategy with Cambodia highlighted as a key partner. Human rights: A campaign for victims of torture in southern Russia seeks legal and psychological support ahead of June 26.

Aviation Sovereignty: Putin said Russia is among four states able to design and manufacture aircraft engines end-to-end, using domestically made components as import substitution accelerates. Ukraine War & Frontline: Fighting continues across multiple sectors, with reports of Russian advances in Sumy and other areas alongside intensified Ukrainian long-range strikes hitting gas and satellite facilities. Fuel Crunch in Russia: Ukraine-linked refinery disruptions are driving gasoline shortages; Moscow is weighing restrictions and even imports, including talks with Kazakhstan for gasoline supplies. Crimea Under Pressure: Ukrainian strikes are blamed for forcing Crimea to halt or restrict civilian fuel sales and tighten public life as power and logistics take hits. Opposition Under Clampdown: Yabloko deputy Maxim Kruglov was sentenced to seven years for anti-war social media posts, underscoring shrinking space for dissent ahead of Duma elections. EU Sanctions: EU ambassadors agreed to extend sectoral restrictions on Russia for 12 months. Cyber Disruption: Europol and partners announced a major operation disrupting malware networks tied to SocGholish, Amadey, and StealC, seizing servers, domains, and stolen logins. Diplomacy & Regional Ties: Lavrov reiterated Russia’s readiness for talks based on prior understandings, while Russia-India trade cooperation was highlighted by the Kremlin.

Ukraine Strikes Deep Into Russia’s Energy: Kyiv says drones hit the Orenburg Gas Processing Plant and two satellite communications centers, including near Moscow, as Russia struggles with fuel and power disruptions. Crimea Under Pressure: Ukrainian attacks knocked out power in Sevastopol and hit the peninsula’s grid, with Russian-installed officials ordering early closures and transport limits. Fuel Market Stress: Rosneft chief Igor Sechin warned Putin about “unprecedented” refinery damage and urged temporary changes to fuel sales rules to stabilize gasoline and diesel. Kremlin Diplomacy Line: Lavrov reiterated Russia won’t accept interim “temporary solutions,” insisting it remains tied to the Alaska understandings and that US/UK support enables Ukraine’s cross-border strikes. Russian Domestic Crackdown: Russia transferred control of a major nationalized warehouse/logistics owner to a state company, highlighting continued asset seizures. Disinformation Push: Leaked plans describe “Project 2026,” aiming to shape how search engines and AI chatbots learn politics via Kremlin-aligned reference sites. Regional Politics: Lithuania’s government resigned after a coalition reset, setting up another leadership transition.

Ukraine War & Diplomacy: Putin told new officers the West is preparing for war against Russia, while Moscow also complained the US is no longer an “objective mediator” on ending the conflict. Civil Infrastructure & Crimea: Putin ordered safeguards for civilian infrastructure after Ukrainian strikes, as Kyiv hit Crimea with drones targeting a railway bridge and other key sites; Russia also moved to ration fuel and restrict public life on the peninsula. Information & Propaganda: A new report says Russia’s forces used sexual violence against men in Ukraine as a systematic weapon, and separate leaks claim Russia is trying to reshape Central Europe by sidelining Prague. Regional Politics: Russia again criticized Armenia’s EU pivot, warning Yerevan it can’t benefit economically from Moscow while seeking EU membership. Sanctions & Cuba: US sanctions hit Cuban mining firms and GAESA-linked enterprises, including logistics and finance. Business/Markets: Russia’s central bank cut rates to 14.25% amid easing inflation risks, but war spending keeps pressure on the economy. Sports (Light): World Cup attendance is on track for record highs, and Ronaldo scored twice to make history for Portugal.

Fuel Crunch in Siberia: Siberian governors imposed caps and bans on gasoline sales after refinery disruptions, with officials weighing fuel imports and possible price subsidies as output fell and lines returned. Ukraine Strikes, Russia Responds: Ukrainian drones hit Russian oil and logistics targets, while Russia carried out missile and drone attacks including on Odesa and Kryvyi Rih, where casualties rose to three dead and dozens injured. AI Rules Without a Ban: Russia approved a bill to regulate domestic AI “large fundamental models,” pushing “sovereign” development while allowing foreign models and training with foreign data. Cybercrime Watch: A FortiBleed campaign is linked to an initial access broker targeting hundreds of thousands of FortiGate firewalls to harvest credentials. Sanctions Pressure on Media: Procter & Gamble ended ads with Georgia’s UK-sanctioned Imedi TV, joining other brands cutting ties after sanctions listings. Diplomacy and War Talk: Kremlin aide Yury Ushakov welcomed US-Iran ceasefire talks but warned lasting peace will take time, as Europe debates how to engage Russia beyond ceasefire hopes.

Ukraine-Russia Strikes: Ukraine says it hit a Voronezh plant making missile electronics and a satellite communications facility near Moscow, while Russia reports intercepting hundreds of drones and restricting flights around the capital. NATO Pressure: Latvian intelligence warns Russia may stage hybrid provocations against Baltic states or Poland to pressure NATO to stop backing Kyiv. Occupied Crimea Fuel Crunch: Ukraine’s drone campaign keeps squeezing Russia-held Crimea, with authorities halting civilian fuel sales and residents reporting shortages. Domestic Mobilization: A senior Russian lawmaker proposes compulsory military training from fifth grade to prepare youth for a possible NATO conflict by 2030. Romania Political Crisis: Romania’s parliament rejected PM-designate Adrian Vestea, deepening a crisis that threatens EU funds and credit ratings. Russia Economy Watch: The Bank of Russia cut its key rate to 14.25% amid fuel and budget pressures, while analysts warn of war-economy strain. Cruise Revival: Russia’s Far East is courting cruise ships again, with Vladivostok welcoming a test voyage after years of absence.

Ukraine War Front: Ukraine says it hit a Voronezh semiconductor plant making electronics for Iskander and other missile systems, with smoke reported and officials citing injuries, while Crimea Fuel Pressure: Russian-installed authorities again suspend civilian fuel sales and impose restrictions after Ukrainian drone strikes aimed at logistics and energy. Black Sea Shipping: Russian drones struck foreign-flagged cargo ships, killing an Egyptian crew member aboard the Panama-flagged Victress and damaging other vessels, raising fresh concerns for civilian maritime routes. NATO/Defense Posture: The US Marine Corps tested dispersed air operations by landing and launching F-35Bs from a Finnish highway strip, underscoring NATO’s push to keep aircraft operating if bases are targeted. Sanctions & Business: Nestlé launched an internal probe after advertising on a sanctioned Georgian TV channel tied to Russian propaganda. Diplomacy/Trade: Brazil’s ambassador to Moscow said using national currencies in bilateral payments is a goal, while Human Impact: the Philippines said it will investigate reports that 24 Filipinos repatriated from Russia were victims of illegal recruiters.

Crimea Fuel Crunch: Russian-appointed officials in Sevastopol and across occupied Crimea suspended civilian fuel sales and tightened operations after Ukrainian drone strikes hit fuel infrastructure, with reports of deaths and dozens injured and ferry traffic disrupted. Ukraine Strikes Deep Into Russia: Zelenskyy said Ukraine hit oil and logistics targets on both sides of the Crimean Bridge and struck a faraway Siberian oil facility, while warning of a new “massive” Russian retaliation. US Congress Pushes Ukraine Intelligence: A Senate version of the 2027 NDAA includes “intelligence support” for Ukraine aimed at helping Kyiv retake Russian-held territory, as the drone war escalates. EU Targets Russia’s “Shadow Fleet”: German and French lawmakers backed tougher measures to crack down on the Russian tanker network used to evade sanctions, citing security and environmental risks. Diplomacy and Sanctions Debate: South Africa rejected pressure to freeze Russian assets for Ukraine reconstruction, arguing there’s no legal basis to seize property for that purpose. Russia-Linked Detentions Abroad: Philippines officials welcomed 24 Filipinos repatriated from Russia after months of detention, saying authorities will investigate illegal recruiters.

Crimea Fuel Crisis: Ukrainian long-range drones hit Kerch Strait logistics and an oil depot, killing 4 and wounding 28; Russia’s-installed Crimea governor ordered petrol sales halted to the public, with fuel restricted to government agencies, while ferry traffic and the Kerch bridge saw disruptions. Ukraine-Russia Energy War: Zelensky said strikes also targeted oil transport in Krasnodar and air-defense sites (S-400 and Pantsir), with fires reported at fuel terminals and knock-on effects across civilian supply chains. India’s Oil Pivot: As the Strait of Hormuz reopens, India boosted June crude imports—2.66m bpd from Russia (up from 1.91m in May) and near-record 636k bpd from the UAE—seeking supply security amid lingering shipping uncertainty. Diplomacy & Releases: 24 Filipinos detained in Russia for about nine months arrived back in Manila after President Marcos raised their case with Putin in Kazan. Russia’s External Deals: RDIF and Vietnam’s SCIC agreed to expand investment cooperation across transport, logistics, digital infrastructure, tech, healthcare, LNG and renewables. Military-Political Control: Russia is expanding political commissar roles in the army, reflecting tighter ideological oversight as the war grinds on.

Russia–China Diplomacy: Putin’s Beijing visit marked the 25th anniversary of the Russia–China “good-neighbourliness” treaty, with dozens of agreements and a push to lock in another 25 years of coordination against the West. Ukraine War Updates: Zelenskiy warned of an impending “massive” Russian attack, as strikes across Ukraine killed at least six and hit cultural sites including the Pechersk Lavra; Zaporizhzhia also took guided bomb hits with rising casualties. EU Friction Over Russia: A heated EU Parliament debate erupted over alleged fraud in Israeli settlement goods entering the bloc, while EU leaders argued over whether to open a diplomatic channel with Russia. Russian Domestic Strain: A report says over half of Russia’s regions are running budget deficits in 2026, with war spending squeezing civilian services. Finance Watch: The Bank of Russia cut its key rate to 14.25%, citing inflation risks tied to fuel and war costs. Digital Ruble Debate: Russia plans a mass rollout of the digital ruble from Sept. 1, raising concerns about tighter state control over money use. Regional/Global Ties: Marcos says ASEAN–Russia cooperation is expanding into tech, AI, data centres and power, and Russia freed 24 Filipinos after talks with Putin.

Ukraine War Update: Russia hit Odesa with a drone attack on a gas station and tanker, while Kharkiv saw guided-bomb strikes injuring at least five; in the south, Kherson reported 25 civilians wounded and damage to homes, a cathedral and a gas station. Black Sea Shipping: Ukraine says Russian drones struck foreign-flagged cargo ships near the maritime corridor, killing one sailor and injuring others, with fires and navigation disruption reported. Russia-Ukraine Escalation Rhetoric: Dmitry Medvedev said there are “no longer any rules” for Kyiv as attacks on Russian cities intensify. Central Bank & Inflation: Elvira Nabiullina warned Middle East conflict keeps inflation risks elevated, but said risks would ease if the conflict ends. Russia Abroad & Diplomacy: China’s visa-free push is driving record Russian arrivals in Guangzhou; Nigeria and Russia welcomed new ambassadorial ties; Russia’s embassy in India hosted Yoga ahead of International Yoga Day. EU Sanctions & Politics: EU leaders moved toward extending Russia sanctions, while Medvedev’s hardline stance and European debate over dialogue continued. BRICS Security Talks: China’s envoy said BRICS NSA meetings will coordinate political and security responses ahead of the September summit.

Russia-ASEAN Diplomacy: Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. returned to Manila after a “very productive” two-day visit to Kazan, where he co-chaired the 35th ASEAN-Russia commemorative summit with Vladimir Putin and backed deeper cooperation on security, trade, energy, and people-to-people ties. Ukraine War & Drones: Kyiv warned Belarus to remove Russian signaling equipment used for attacks, while Ukraine kept up strikes on Russian energy targets, including a Moscow refinery hit that triggered major disruption and fresh retaliation threats. Economy & Fuel Pressure: The Russian central bank cut its key rate to 14.25% but signaled slower easing, citing higher fuel costs, budget risks, and the growing toll of the war. Europe Talks: Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia is open to negotiations with Europe “without ultimatums,” as EU leaders debate channels with Moscow. Foreign Policy & Travel: Russia lifted its travel advisory for Gulf states after a US-Iran interim peace agreement. Media & Information War: Russia’s Security Council chief Sergei Shoigu accused the West of using fake news to drive “color revolutions,” pointing to Armenia’s 2018 protests. People in Focus: Marcos said 24 Filipinos detained in Russia will be repatriated.

Moscow Drone Shock: Ukraine hit a major Moscow oil refinery again, triggering “black rain” reports and airport flight disruptions as Russian air defenses claimed hundreds of drones shot down. Black Sea Shipping: Russian drones attacked foreign-flagged civilian vessels near Odesa, killing one crew member and injuring others, with Kyiv calling it an attack on freedom of navigation. War on the Home Front: A feature highlights growing Russian frustration as drones, inflation, and internet restrictions reshape daily life. Nuclear Warning: Lavrov warned NATO-Russia confrontation could escalate into nuclear strikes after the Moscow assault. Espionage Crackdown: Russia sentenced a Romanian man to 15 years for allegedly spying for Ukraine by sharing air-defense locations in Sochi. EU-Russia Info Fight: Russia’s MFA spokeswoman accused Politico of blocking Lavrov’s article, while Lavrov pushed diplomacy as a preferred route to achieve war goals. ASEAN-Russia Pivot: Putin hosted ASEAN leaders in Kazan; documents like the Kazan Declaration were adopted, with Marcos saying Russia is “very open” on petroleum cooperation and announcing the release of 24 Filipinos detained in Russia. Fuel Pressure at Home: Russia’s anti-monopoly watchdog is probing Moscow gas stations over price hikes amid drone-driven refinery strain.

ASEAN Pivot: Putin hosted ASEAN leaders in Kazan and backed a “multipolar” agenda in the Kazan Declaration, with plans for deeper security, energy, agriculture, digital and tourism cooperation. Philippines Outreach: Marcos invited Putin to attend the East Asia Summit in Manila this November, pushing maritime security and trade ties. EU Talks Debate: The EU is quietly trying to reopen communication with Moscow, but several leaders warn there’s no point without real peace signals. Moscow Under Fire: Ukraine launched what may be its biggest drone attack on the Russian capital, hitting a key oil refinery again; fires, black smoke and flight disruptions followed, while Lavrov vowed “massive” retaliatory strikes. Energy Shock: The refinery strike threatens fuel supplies and aviation kerosene, feeding fears of a domestic crisis. Tech and Industry: Rostec rolled out a unified accounting system to standardize corporate finance and production tracking across its defense-linked network. Tourism Push: Malaysia’s PM urged faster visa-free travel and direct flights to lift Russian tourist numbers, while Russia-ASEAN summit talks also spotlighted people-to-people links. Sanctions Politics: Bulgaria signaled it will veto EU sanctions if they target Patriarch Kirill.

Russia-Ukraine War: Ukraine launched its biggest drone-and-missile push on Moscow in two years, with nearly 200 drones reported hitting targets and thick smoke rising after a second strike on the Kapotnya oil refinery; Kyiv also reported missile attacks on the capital as air-raid alerts covered much of Ukraine. Energy & Sanctions: The refinery attacks are framed by both sides as “long-range sanctions” and retaliation, while the Kremlin faces mounting fiscal strain as it leans more on costly domestic debt to fund the war. Diplomacy in Kazan: President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. used the Russia-ASEAN summit in Kazan to call for stronger maritime security, counterterrorism, and trade ties, while also pushing energy and food-security cooperation with Putin. Tourism & Business Links: The Philippines expects more Russian tourists as airlines seek direct routes to Manila and Cebu, and Russia-ASEAN talks also highlighted energy supply ambitions. Regional Politics: Moscow moved to deepen control in South Ossetia by appointing Marat Kambolov as the region’s so-called prime minister. UK-Russia Tensions: A British couple targeted by a Russian warship in the Channel said Putin “won’t spoil” their holiday, underscoring ongoing maritime friction.

Russia-ASEAN Diplomacy: Putin hosted ASEAN leaders in Kazan as the 35th anniversary summit pushes deeper trade and security ties, with Malaysia’s Anwar meeting Putin on energy cooperation and visa liberalisation. Ukraine War & Sanctions: At the G7 in Evian, leaders pledged tighter sanctions on Russia’s oil and gas while discussing Ukraine’s air defence; Trump also signaled a possible return of Russian oil sanctions tied to the Iran deal. Drone Strikes on Civilians: Russia condemned a drone attack on a bus carrying a Belarus youth football team in Bryansk, killing a woman and wounding children; Ukraine denied involvement. Regional Security Flashpoint: A Russian warship incident near a UK yacht in the Channel continues to spark political fallout and claims of attempts to suppress the account. Political Violence in Europe: Polish PM Tusk called the killing of Putin critic artist Semyon Skrepetsky in Poland a likely political murder, with Belarus suspects detained. Business & Finance: Mondelez defended continuing Cadbury trading in Russia, while reports said Russian businessman Ilya Traber was detained in a contract-killing probe. Energy/Trade Deals: Iran signed to buy 20 Russian helicopters for rescue and logistics, and Russia discussed expanding energy exports to ASEAN.